2nd RISE Workshop: Understanding Macroeconomic Regimes and their implications for modelling and policymaking

5 March 2024
Event type: SAMNet Workshop
Event date: 25 July 2024 at 8:00am
to 26 July 2024 at 6:00pm
Location: Pretoria

In the wake of an evolving macroeconomic landscape marked by events such as the global financial crisis, European sovereign debt crisis, Covid19 pandemic, geo-political risks, and climate change, a new macroeconomic regime is emerging. As challenges like potential inflation, government debt, limited fiscal space, productivity slowdown, green transition, and capital imbalances emerge, there is a compelling need for a collective re-evaluation of macroeconomic models by both academics and policymakers. The 2nd RISE Workshop is dedicated to addressing these critical issues. It brings together researchers that will enhance our understanding of the sources and the macroeconomic consequences of regime switches as well as the actions that policymakers can undertake to improve the stability and resilience of the economic system.

Top researchers will present their work in front of an esteemed audience for discussion. We have confirmed our programme, and each presentation has been scheduled to be live-streamed on our YouTube Channel. We invite you to subscribe and click on the links below to be notified about when each session begins.

Print programme for 2nd RISE Annual Workshop and Course.pdf

2nd RISE Workshop Programme

Note: Presenters’ names are in bold

Day 1: July 25, 2024

08:15 – 08:45 (UTC+2) Tea and Registration
08:45 – 08:55 (UTC+2) Opening Remarks:
Guangling Liu:
Professor of Economics at Stellenbosch University
08:55 – 10:00 (UTC+2) Session 1.1: Keynote I
Chair: Dr. Francesca Loria, Federal Reserve Board and CEPR
  “Does the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Change When Inflation Is High?”

Presented by:
Fabio Canova: BI Norwegian Business School, CAMP and CEPR and Norges Bank

Other authors:
Fernando J. Pérez Forero: Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP)

10:00 – 10:15 (UTC+2) Break
10:15 – 11:15 (UTC+2) Session 1.2: Methodological Innovations I
Chair: Dr. Gianni Amisano, Federal Reserve Board
10:15 – 10:45 (UTC+2) Flexible Priors and Restrictions for Structural Vector Autoregressions”


  • Francesca Loria: Federal Reserve Board and CEPR
  • Christiane Baumeister: University of Notre Dame, CEPR and NBER
  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank
10:45 – 11:15 (UTC+2) A Unified Approach to Determinacy Conditions with Regime Switching”


  • Magali Marx: Banque de France
  • Jean Barthélemy: Banque de France
  • Seonghoon Cho: Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
11:15 – 11:30 (UTC+2) Break
11:30 – 13:00 (UTC+2) Session 1.3: Monetary Policy Strategies and Labor Market Dynamics
Chair: Dr. Oleg Kirsanov, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow
11:30 – 12:00 (UTC+2) Optimal QE and QT


  • Paolo Gelain: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank
  • Eric Sims: University of Notre Dame and NBER
  • Jing Cynthia Wu: University of Notre Dame and NBER
12:00 – 12:30 (UTC+2) The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Norway


  • Jin Cao: Norges Bank
  • Torje Hegna: Ministry of Finance, Norway
  • Martin B. Holm: University of Oslo, Norway
  • Ragnar Juelsrud: Norges Bank
  • Tobias Konig: University of Bonn
  • Mikkel Riiser: BI Norwegian Business School
12:30 – 13:00 (UTC+2) Search Frictions in Good Markets and CPI Inflation


  • Masashige Hamano: Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics
  • Philip Schnattinger: Bank of England
  • Kongphop Wongkaew: Waseda University and Siam Commercial Bank (Thailand)
13:00 – 14:30 (UTC+2) Lunch Break + Poster Session I
14:30 – 16:00 (UTC+2) Session 1.4: Fiscal Policies and Sovereign Defaults
Chair: Dr. Roberto A. De Santis, ECB
14:30 – 15:00 (UTC+2) Fiscal Policy Regimes in Least Developed Countries


  • Lucius Cassim: Department of Economics, Deakin University (Australia)
15:00 – 15:30 (UTC+2) Demand for Fiscal Policy in an Ageing Country


  • Takuji Fueki: Hitotsubashi University
  • Masashi Hino: University of Tokyo
  • Taisuke Nakata: University of Tokyo
  • Munechika Katayama: Waseda University
15:30 – 16:00 (UTC+2) The Geoeconomics of International Political Relations and Sovereign Defaults


  • Consuelo Silva-Buston : Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
  • Marcela Valenzuela : Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
  • Ilknur Zer: Federal Reserve Board
16:00 – 16:15 (UTC+2) Break
16:15 – 17:15 (UTC+2) Session 1.5: Term Structure and Commodity Prices
Chair: Dr. Munechika Katayama, Waseda University
16:15 – 16:45 (UTC+2) The Term Structure of Natural Rates of Interest


  • Gianni Amisano: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Oreste Tristani: European Central Bank (ECB) and CEPR
16:45 – 17:15 (UTC+2) Monetary Policy Response to Commodity Price Volatility in South Africa: A Regime-Switching Analysis


  • Vo Phuong Mai Le: Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, United Kingdom
  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank
  • Ruthira Naraidoo: University of Pretoria


Day 2: July 26, 2024


08:15 – 08:50 (UTC+2) Tea and Registration
08:50 – 10:00 (UTC+2) Session 2.1: Keynote II
Chair: Junior Maih, Norges Bank
  Fiscal Backing, Inflation and US Business Cycles


  • Raf Wouters: National Bank of Belgium
  • Frank Smets: European Central Bank (ECB)
10:00 – 10:15 (UTC+2) Break
10:15 – 11:15 (UTC+2) Session 2.2: Climate Policy and Energy Economics
Chair: Dr. Masashige Hamano, Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics
10:15 – 10:45 (UTC+2) Climate Policy and Gender Inequality


  • Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja: ESSCA School of Management, France
  • Johan Gustafsson: Umea School of Business, Economics and Statistics (USBE), Sweden
  • Xiaofei Ma: ESSCA School of Management, France
  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank
10:45 – 11:15 (UTC+2) Energy Supply Shocks’ Nonlinearities on Output and Prices


  • Roberto A. De Santis: European Central Bank (ECB)
  • Tommaso Tornese: Department of Economics, Bocconi University
11:15 – 11:30 (UTC+2) Break
11:30 – 13:00 (UTC+2) Session 2.3: Financial Stability, Market Frictions, and Energy Security
Chair: Dr. Tatiana Kirsanova, University of Glasgow
11:30 – 12:00 (UTC+2) Navigating Geopolitical Crises for Energy Security: Evaluating Optimal Subsidy Policies via a Markov Switching DSGE Model


  • Ying Tung Chan: Bay Area International Business School, Beijing Normal University, China
  • Maria Teresa Punzi: Singapore Green Finance Centre at the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore
  • Hong Zhao: Department of Economics, Nankai University, China
12:00 – 12:30 (UTC+2) Exploring the Euro Area Exposure to the Risk of Financial Fragmentation


  • Gergely Hudecz: European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
  • Alexandre Lauwers : European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
  • Yasin Mimir : European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
  • Graciela Schiliuk: European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
12:30 – 13:00 (UTC+2) Beliefs for Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: An Analysis with a Regime Switching Small Open Economy Model


  • Masashige Hamano: Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics
  • Yuki Murakami: Waseda University, School of Political Science and Economics
13:00 – 14:30 (UTC+2) Lunch Break + Poster Session 2
14:30 – 16:00 (UTC+2) Session 2.4: Structural Reforms and Economic Growth
Chair: Dr. Ruthira Naraidoo, University of Pretoria
14:30 – 15:00 (UTC+2) Searching for Flexibility: The Joint Impact of Thatcher’s Reforms of UK Labour and Housing Markets


  • Tatiana Kirsanova: University of Glasgow
  • Oyvind Masst: University of Glasgow
  • Charles Nolan: University of Glasgow
15:00 – 15:30 (UTC+2) Mitigating the Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal in an Oil-Producing Emerging Economy


  • Babatunde S. Omotosho: Statistics Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria
  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank, Oslo, Norway
  • Bo Yang: Department of Economics, Swansea University
15:30 – 16:00 (UTC+2) The Impact of Macroprudential Policies on Industrial Growth


  • Carlos Madeira: Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and Central Bank of Chile
16:00 – 16:15 (UTC+2) Break
16:15 – 17:15 (UTC+2) Session 2.5: Methodological Innovations II
Chair: Dr. Gianni Amisano, Federal Reserve Board
16:15 – 16:45 (UTC+2) On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models


  • Nigar Hashimzade: Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University, United Kingdom
  • Oleg Kirsanov: Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
  • Tatiana Kirsanova: Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank
16:45 – 17:15 (UTC+2) Cognitive Discounting in a Nonlinear World: Implications for Macroeconomic Dynamics


  • Junior Maih: Monetary Policy Department, Norges Bank
  • Christian Matthes: Department of Economics, Indiana University
17:30 – 18:30 (UTC+2) Roundtable
19:30 – 23:00 (UTC+2) Conference Dinner (invitation only)


Organising committee:

Jean Barthelemy (Banque de France) Christiane Baumeister (University of Notre Dame)
Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University) Hilde Bjørnland (Norwegian Business School BI)
Jin Cao (Norges Bank) Yoosoon Chang (Indiana University)
Yoseph Getachew (University of Pretoria) Nigar Hashimzade (Brunel University)
Munechika Katayama (Waseda University) Ryo Kato (Asia University)
Tatiana Kirsanova (University of Glasgow) Mai Le (Cardiff Business School)
Guangling Liu (Stellenbosch University) Junior Maih (Norges Bank)
Magali Marx (Banque de France) Christian Matthes (Indiana University)
Masashige Hamano (Waseda University) Francesca Loria (CEPR)
David Meenagh (Cardiff Business School) Yasin Mimir (European Stability Mechanism)
Ruthira Naraidoo (University of Pretoria) Harold Ngalawa (University of Kwa-Zulu Natal)
Shin-Ichi Nishiyama (Kobe University) Juan Paez-Farrell (University of Sheffield)
Eric Schaling (Wits Business School) Bob Tetlow (Federal Reserve Board)
Christian Tipoy (University of Kwa-Zulu Natal) Nicola Viegi (University of Pretoria)
Daniel Waggoner (Emory University)

Contact Information:

For any further information or if you have any questions, please send an email to Prof. Ruthira Naraidoo, Professor of Economics at the University of Pretoria: or phone: +27 825 514 765

We eagerly anticipate your valuable contributions to this enriching event, fostering collaborative insights into the challenges shaping our macroeconomic future.

Short Course Information

Building on the success of the inaugural RISE Workshop in Japan last year, this event will also feature a 3-day Short Course (July 22-24) in macro theory, computation, and estimation. Geared towards Masters, PhDs, and researchers in academia and policy circles, the course aims to deepen understanding and skills in these areas. You will have the opportunity to explore the latest advancements in the RISE Toolbox and harness its full potential. Limited spaces are available. We invite both South African and International applicants.

Instructors and topics:

  • Introduction to RISE – Junior Maih (Norges Bank)
  • Optimal Policy – Tatiana Kirsanova (University of Glasgow)
  • Small Open Economy Models – Masashige Hamano (Waseda University, Japan)
  • Small Open Economy with Commodities – Ruthira Naraidoo (University of Pretoria)
  • Estimation of DSGE Models – Munechika Katayama (Waseda University, Japan)
  • Structural VARs – Francesca Loria (CEPR)


Short Course Application Guidelines:

Applications for the Short Course have closed.


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