SAMNet

Housing and Credit Market Shocks: Exploring the Role of Rule-Based Basel III Counter-Cyclical Capital Requirements

26 November 2021
Publication Type: Research Paper

This paper examines the extent to which the Basel III bank capital regulation attenuates fluctuations in housing and credit markets and fosters financial and macroeconomic stability. We use a positive housing demand shock to mimic a housing market boom and a negative financial shock for credit squeeze and economic meltdown. The results show that the rule-based Basel III counter-cyclical capital requirement effectively attenuates fluctuations in housing and credit markets and prevents bubbles. In the case of a negative financial shock, it significantly reduces the magnitude of economic meltdown. Our analysis of the transition from Basel II to Basel III suggests that it is the counter-cyclical capital buffer that effectively mitigates the pro-cyclicality of its predecessor, while the impact of the conservative buffer is marginal. In contrast to the credit-to-GDP ratio, the optimal policy analysis suggests that the regulatory authority should adjust the capital requirement to changes in credit and output when implementing the counter-cyclical buffer. Future research could extend the study by comparing the effectiveness of the rule-based Basel III with other macroprudential tools in achieving financial and macroeconomic stability.

SHARE THIS Research Paper PUBLICATION:

SAMNet

Search Resources

Economic Themes

Events & Training

Ground Floor Brookside Building
11 Imam Haron Road
Claremont, 7708
Cape Town

PostNet Suite # 109
Private Bag X1005
Claremont 7735
Cape Town

Get Social