SAMNet

Session 8: Hopeless Hysteresis: Investigating Unemployment Persistence in South Africa

17 October 2022
Publication Type: Workshop Presentation

Unemployment is the defining characteristic of the South African economy with distinctive dynamics: Up from 29.1% in 2020Q1 before lockdown effects could be felt to 34.4% in 2021Q2 (44.4% including discouraged). The youth are particularly affected with 64.4% without a job in 2021Q2, and unemployment follows GDP growth patterns closely.

This paper investigates the drivers of the double negative trend in two ways:

  1. Firstly, by providing evidence of hysteresis in the unemployment series for South Africa.
  2. Secondly, by using a simple model of insider-outsider dynamics to identify the causes of hysteresis and discussing the implications this finding generates.
Series title: Hopeless Hysteresis: Investigating Unemployment Persistence in South Africa
Hopeless Hysteresis: Investigating Unemployment Persisten...
Hopeless Hysteresis: Investigating Unemployment Persistence in South Africa
Hopeless Hysteresis: Investigating Unemployment Persistence in South Africa
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